whatsoever.-->
src="http://bringtheblog.com/i/crystal-ball-2011.jpg"
alt="Predicting mortgage and housing" width="220" height="246"
/>With 2010 coming to a close, the "experts" are out in full
force, making predictions for next year's housing and mortgage
markets on business television and in the papers.
Predictions for 2011 are wide-ranging:
- Some say home prices
href="http://www.housingwire.com/2010/12/22/home-prices-expected-to-rise-in-40-of-major-metros-in-2011-veros"
target="_blank">will rise in 2011 - Some say home prices
href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-28/home-prices-probably-fell-showing-u-s-economy-s-weak-link.html"
target="_blank">will fall in 2011 - Some say mortgage rates
href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/26/realestate/26mort.html"
target="_blank">will rise in 2011 - Some say mortgage rates
href="http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2010/12/how-the-mortgage-market-will-look-in-2011/68553/"
target="_blank">will fall in 2011
The problem with housing and mortgage
predictions is that -- like all predictions -- they're just
educated guesses about the future. Nobody knows what will
really happen with the housing and mortgage
markets in 2011. All anyone can do is theorize. As laypersons,
though, it can be hard to separate theory from fact.
Television can make that task even more difficult at
times.
As an example, when a well-dressed
economist goes on CNBC and presents a clear, succinct argument for
why home prices will fall on 2011, we're inclined to believe the
analysis and conclusion. After all, the outcome seems plausible
outcome given the facts. But then, immediately after, a different
economist presents an opposite argument -- that home
prices will rise in 2011 -- and her
analysis seems sound, too.
Even Freddie Mac
can't see the future.
Last year, the government
group predicted
href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/12/25/AR2009122501652.html"
target="_blank">mortgage rates to 6 percent in 2010.
That never happened, of course. Instead, conforming mortgage rates
dropped over a 7-month period this year to levels best be described
as "historic". Freddie Mac couldn't have been more
wrong.
So, what's a Edmond homeowner to
believe?
About the only thing that's certain
right now is that mortgage rates remain low by historical
standards, and that home prices do, too. Also, that both housing
and mortgage markets appear to be riding momentum higher into 2011.
This suggests that it will be more expensive to buy and
finance a home by the end of 2011.
Until that
time, however, predictions are just guesses.
Originally posted at Oklahoma City Real Estate Blog
Submitted by OKCHomeSeller's Posterous via email from http://okchomeseller.posterous.com/housing-and-mortgage-predictions-for-2011
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